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The Arctic Ocean is characterized by an ice-covered layer of cold and relatively fresh water above layers of warmer and saltier water. It is estimated that enough heat is stored in these deeper layers to melt all the Arctic sea ice many times over, but they are isolated from the surface by a stable halocline. Current vertical mixing rates across the Arctic Ocean halocline are small, due in part to sea ice reducing wind–ocean momentum transfer and damping internal waves. However, recent observational studies have argued that sea ice retreat results in enhanced mixing. This could create a positive feedback whereby increased vertical mixing due to sea ice retreat causes the previously isolated subsurface heat to melt more sea ice. Here, we use an idealized climate model to investigate the impacts of such a feedback. We find that an abrupt “tipping point” can occur under global warming, with an associated hysteresis window bounded by saddle-node bifurcations. We show that the presence and magnitude of the hysteresis are sensitive to the choice of model parameters, and the hysteresis occurs for only a limited range of parameters. During the critical transition at the bifurcation point, we find that only a small percentage of the heat stored in the deep layer is released, although this is still enough to lead to substantial sea ice melt. Furthermore, no clear relationship is apparent between this change in heat storage and the level of hysteresis when the parameters are varied.

 

At most latitudes, the seasonal cycle of zonal‐mean surface air temperature is notably asymmetric: the length of the warming season is not equal to the length of the cooling season. The asymmetry varies spatially, with the cooling season being ∼40 days shorter than the warming season in the subtropics and the warming season being ∼100 days shorter than the cooling season at the poles. Furthermore, the asymmetry differs between the Northern Hemisphere and the Southern Hemisphere. Here, we show that these observed features are broadly captured in a simple model for the evolution of temperature forced by realistic insolation. The model suggests that Earth's orbital eccentricity largely determines the hemispheric contrast, and obliquity broadly dictates the meridional structure. Clouds, atmospheric heat flux convergence, and time‐invariant effective surface heat capacity have minimal impacts on seasonal asymmetry. This simple, first‐order picture has been absent from previous discussions of the surface temperature seasonal cycle.

 

Phytoplankton primary production in the Arctic Ocean has been increasing over the last two decades. In 2019, a record spring bloom occurred in Fram Strait, characterized by a peak in chlorophyll that was reached weeks earlier than in other years and was larger than any previously recorded May bloom. Here, we consider the conditions that led to this event and examine drivers of spring phytoplankton blooms in Fram Strait using in situ, remote sensing, and data assimilation methods. From samples collected during the May 2019 bloom, we observe a direct relationship between sea ice meltwater in the upper water column and chlorophyllapigment concentrations. We place the 2019 spring dynamics in context of the past 20 years, a period marked by rapid change in climatic conditions. Our findings suggest that increased advection of sea ice into the region and warmer surface temperatures led to a rise in meltwater input and stronger near‐surface stratification. Over this time period, we identify large‐scale spatial correlations in Fram Strait between increased chlorophyllaconcentrations and increased freshwater flux from sea ice melt.

 

Arctic icebergs, unconstrained sea ice floes, oil slicks, mangrove drifters, lost cargo containers, and other flotsam are known to move at 2%–4% of the prevailing wind velocity relative to the water, despite vast differences in the material properties, shapes, and sizes of objects. Here, we revisit the roles of density, aspect ratio, and skin and form drag in determining how an object is driven by winds and water currents. Idealized theoretical considerations show that although substantial differences exist for end members of the parameter space (either very thin or thick and very light or dense objects), most realistic cases of floating objects drift at approximately 3% of the free-stream wind velocity (measured outside an object’s surface boundary layer) relative to the water. This relationship, known as a long-standing rule of thumb for the drift of various types of floating objects, arises from the square root of the ratio of the density of air to that of water. We support our theoretical findings with flume experiments using floating objects with a range of densities and shapes.

 

Abstract The Antarctic Ice Sheet loses mass via its ice shelves predominantly through two processes: basal melting and iceberg calving. Iceberg calving is episodic and infrequent, and not well parameterized in ice-sheet models. Here, we investigate the impact of hydrostatic forces on calving. We develop two-dimensional elastic and viscous numerical frameworks to model the ‘footloose’ calving mechanism. This mechanism is triggered by submerged ice protrusions at the ice front, which induce unbalanced buoyancy forces that can lead to fracturing. We compare the results to identify the different roles that viscous and elastic deformations play in setting the rate and magnitude of calving events. Our results show that, although the bending stresses in both frameworks share some characteristics, their differences have important implications for modeling the calving process. In particular, the elastic model predicts that maximum stresses arise farther from the ice front than in the viscous model, leading to larger calving events. We also find that the elastic model would likely lead to more frequent events than the viscous one. Our work provides a theoretical framework for the development of a better understanding of the physical processes that govern glacier and ice-shelf calving cycles. 

Abstract. The frontal flux balance of a medium-sized tidewater glacier in westernGreenland in the summer is assessed by quantifying the individual components(ice flux, retreat, calving, and submarine melting) through a combination ofdata and models. Ice flux and retreat are obtained from satellite data.Submarine melting is derived using a high-resolution ocean model informed bynear-ice observations, and calving is estimated using a record of calvingevents along the ice front. All terms exhibit large spatial variability alongthe ∼5 km wide ice front. It is found that submarine melting accountsfor much of the frontal ablation in small regions where two subglacialdischarge plumes emerge at the ice front. Away from the subglacial plumes,the estimated melting accounts for a small fraction of frontal ablation.Glacier-wide, these estimates suggest that mass loss is largely controlled bycalving. This result, however, is at odds with the limited presence oficebergs at this calving front – suggesting that melt rates in regionsoutside of the subglacial plumes may be underestimated. Finally, we arguethat localized melt incisions into the glacier front can be significantdrivers of calving. Our results suggest a complex interplay of melting andcalving marked by high spatial variability along the glacier front.

 

Arctic Amplification is robustly seen in climate model simulations of future warming and in the paleoclimate record. Here, we focus on the past century of observations. We show that Arctic Amplification is only a recent phenomenon, and that for much of this period the Arctic cooled while the global‐mean temperature rose. To investigate why this occurred, we analyze large ensembles of comprehensive climate model simulations under different forcing scenarios. Our results suggest that the global warming from greenhouse gases was largely offset in the Arctic by regional cooling due to aerosols, with internal climate variability also contributing to Arctic cooling and global warming trends during this period. This suggests that the disruption of Arctic Amplification was due to a combination of factors unique to the 20th century, and that enhanced Arctic warming should be expected to be a consistent feature of climate change over the coming century.